Fans of physical media have been dealt a double blow in the past couple of weeks. First, there was the news that GTA 6 would be a digital-only release. Days later, Sony announced that PlayStation games would no longer be made on discs from January 2028.
Curiously, it turns out that the former head of rival console maker Nintendo predicted when such a transition could happen with quite a high degree of accuracy. But does that mean Nintendo will follow suit?
Nintendo fans on Reddit have rediscovered a story that came out of a Nintendo investor meeting back in 2009. Already, there was talk then of digital games replacing physical, but Satoru Iwata, Nintendo's late former CEO and president, poured cold water on the idea.
As reported by Kotaku at the time, Iwata said: "[The] most radical people even dare to say that retailers will be replaced by digital distribution in no time. But personally, I think it will still require a significant amount of time."
He continued: "In other words, it will require many years and months for the majority of video game purchase to become digital. In short, in 20 years or so, I might say it will have probably changed. But in 5 years or so, I do not totally agree with opinions that no one will purchase titles at retailers by then."
Time has proven him right. Almost 16 years after that meeting, people are indeed still buying physical games. Sony will only stop PS5 disc sales from 2028, which would be close to the 20 years that Iwata predicted.
So what's Nintendo's view today? Iwata passed away in 2015, but does the company still view circa 2029 as the possible moment for a transition to all-digital?
On the one hand, it seems Nintendo would have the biggest motivation for such a move given the cost of making its cartridges. According to an anonymous source cited by FRVR, physical Nintendo Switch games cost between $12 and $15 to make, compared to $6.50 for PS5 discs.
It's already rolled out controversial Game-Key Cards, which arguably aren't a lot more convincing than GTA 6's code in a box ploy to avoid monopoly concerns, although players can at least resell them.
But Nintendo has a reputation for doing its own thing, and it has good reason to continue to bet on the physical realm.
The PS6 and Xbox's Project Helix may not come with disc drives, but the Switch 2 is only a year old and does have a slot for physical games. That suggests Nintendo will continue to make cartridges for at least the rest of this cycle.
Sales numbers also speak volumes. Close to 80 per cent of Sony's PlayStation game sales are digital, but Nintendo's last full-year report shows that physical games still generated almost half of its revenue from game sales in the year ending 31 March. That would mean a lot of upset fans if Nintendo dropped physical games today.
Per Nintendo's latest financial report, they aren't in the position to go digital only quite yet. Physical is still a big proportion of sales. pic.twitter.com/IdYRWnB74LJuly 2, 2026
A physical retail presence is also very important for Nintendo in Japan – and it remains a Japan-first company. It seems unlikely that this would change fast enough for Switch 3 to be a digital-only console.
Some gamers on Reddit believe that Nintendo's decision to hike the price of physical first-party games is an attempt to push more players towards digital. The suggestion is that it's aiming to get to the point where phasing out physical games would at least be an option.
If that's true, Sony's PlayStation decision might upset its plan. Some think the backlash against could boost the sales of Nintendo Switch cartridges as gamers turn to the one company they believe is still committed to physical releases.
