Affinity's free gambit could shatter Adobe (but if it doesn't, that tells us a lot)

Here's the moment of truth. Affinity has just made one of the best Photoshop alternatives completely free. Proper professional creative software with photo editing, vector design and page layout. Which means Creative Cloud subscriptions could start haemorrhaging faster than a punctured hot air balloon. This should be Adobe's nightmare scenario. Or… it might not change anything. Let me explain.

I reckon Affinity's bold move is going to reveal something fascinating about us: whether we've become so dependent on AI features that we literally can't work without them any more. Even though half of us spent the last two years complaining about them.

What's on offer

First, let's be clear about what's on offer. Affinity isn't some hobbyist toy. For traditional creative work, it's basically on par with Adobe. Layers, advanced masking, vector tools, page layout, non-destructive editing... it does everything most people will need. And now, it costs precisely nothing.

Most creatives don't use 90% of what Creative Cloud offers anyway. We're paying a significant sum a month for Photoshop, Illustrator and InDesign, occasionally opening Premiere for a quick video edit, and ignoring Dimension, Aero, and whatever else Adobe's bundled in there this month.

The financial argument is overwhelming. That's a serious amount of cash every year back in your pocket. Forever. And yet...

Uncomfortable truth

Here's where it gets uncomfortable. The free version of Affinity doesn't include the kind of AI tools Adobe's been cramming Creative Cloud with for years. Content-Aware Fill, Generative Fill, Generative Expand, Object Selection. Want those kinds of features? Then you need a paid Canva subscription.

Which brings us to the question nobody wants to ask: have we become dependent on this stuff?

Think about your last five projects. How many times did you reach for Generative Fill to extend a background? Use Object Selection to mask complex shapes in seconds? Pull a colour palette using Adobe's AI? Firefly, for all the justified concerns, is pretty useful for things like brainstorming and mockups, and I'm hear of lot of positive noises from studios around the use of Firefly Boards for creating moodboards. 

This is why Affinity going free is fascinating. It's a psychological experiment with the entire creative industry as unwitting participants.

If creatives flee Creative Cloud in the hundreds of thousands, it tells us we still value traditional craft, that we can work without AI assistance. A massive vindication for everyone who's argued that subscriptions are exploitative and AI is unnecessary bloat.

But if we don't? That reveals something else entirely. It means AI tools have become so embedded in our workflows that we literally cannot function without them; regardless of what we say in online spats about the "death of creativity".

No middle ground

What makes this so interesting is that there's no comfortable middle position. Affinity has forced the choice into binary terms. 

You can't claim subscriptions are exploitative if you then refuse to switch to a free alternative. Well, you can, but you're basically admitting you're paying for the AI features you spent two years calling "pointless" on social media.

My prediction? Adobe's subscription numbers will barely move. A few thousand creatives will make the switch and write blog posts about their liberation. But the vast majority will stay put, quietly renew their Creative Cloud subscriptions, and never mention this conversation again.

Not because Affinity isn't good enough. It clearly is. But because we've already crossed the Rubicon. We're using AI tools daily, they've become part of our creative process, and we can't unlearn that convenience.

Affinity going free is the test. How we respond tells us everything.